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Graph Neural Controlled Differential Equations for Traffic Forecasting
Jeongwhan Choi Hwangyong Choi Jeehyun Hwang Noseong Park

Abstract
Traffic forecasting is one of the most popular spatio-temporal tasks in the field of machine learning. A prevalent approach in the field is to combine graph convolutional networks and recurrent neural networks for the spatio-temporal processing. There has been fierce competition and many novel methods have been proposed. In this paper, we present the method of spatio-temporal graph neural controlled differential equation (STG-NCDE). Neural controlled differential equations (NCDEs) are a breakthrough concept for processing sequential data. We extend the concept and design two NCDEs: one for the temporal processing and the other for the spatial processing. After that, we combine them into a single framework. We conduct experiments with 6 benchmark datasets and 20 baselines. STG-NCDE shows the best accuracy in all cases, outperforming all those 20 baselines by non-trivial margins.
Code Repositories
Benchmarks
| Benchmark | Methodology | Metrics |
|---|---|---|
| traffic-prediction-on-pemsd3 | STG-NCDE | 12 steps MAE: 15.57 12 steps MAPE: 15.06 12 steps RMSE: 27.09 |
| traffic-prediction-on-pemsd4 | STG-NCDE | 12 steps MAE: 19.21 12 steps MAPE: 12.76 12 steps RMSE: 31.09 |
| traffic-prediction-on-pemsd7 | STG-NCDE | 12 steps MAE: 20.53 12 steps MAPE: 8.8 12 steps RMSE: 33.84 |
| traffic-prediction-on-pemsd7-l | STG-NCDE | 12 steps MAE: 2.87 12 steps MAPE: 7.31 12 steps RMSE: 5.76 |
| traffic-prediction-on-pemsd7-m | STG-NCDE | 12 steps MAE: 2.68 12 steps MAPE: 6.76 12 steps RMSE: 5.39 |
| traffic-prediction-on-pemsd8 | STG-NCDE | 12 steps MAE: 15.45 12 steps MAPE: 9.92 12 steps RMSE: 24.81 |
| weather-forecasting-on-noaa-atmospheric | STG-NCDE | MAE (t+1): 0.3582 ± 0.0616 MAE (t+10): 1.4095 ± 0.1836 |
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