Wuxin Wang Weicheng Ni Lilan Huang Tao Hao Ben Fei Shuo Ma et al

Abstract

Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) demonstrate significant potential to revolutionize weather forecasting. However, most AI-driven models rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems for initial condition preparation, which often consumes hours on supercomputers. Here we introduce XiChen, the first observation-scalable fully AI-driven global weather forecasting system, whose entire pipeline, from Data Assimilation (DA) to medium-range forecasting, can be accomplished within only 17 seconds. XiChen is built upon a foundation model that is pre-trained for weather forecasting. Meanwhile, this model is subsequently fine-tuned to serve as both observation operators and DA models, thereby scalably assimilating conventional and raw satellite observations. Furthermore, the integration of four-dimensional variational knowledge ensures that XiChen's DA and medium-range forecasting accuracy rivals that of operational NWP systems, amazingly achieving a skillful forecasting lead time exceeding 8.25 days. These findings demonstrate that XiChen holds strong potential toward fully AI-driven weather forecasting independent of NWP systems.